The USDA left its 2025 US soybean production estimate little changed on Monday, but a drop in the export forecast helped to lift projected 2025-26 ending stocks.
The USDA pegged 2025 American soybean production at 4.262 billion bu in its monthly supply-demand update. That was up just 9 million bu from the government’s November estimate, although still 3% below the 2024 crop. The average yield was left steady at 53 bu/acre - above 50.7 bu the previous year – but harvested area was bumped 100,000 acres higher to 80.4 million, accounting for the larger production estimate.
Along with a modest increase in estimated 2025-26 beginning stocks to 325 million bu, the slightly larger crop brought the total U.S. soybean supply for 2025-26 to 4.606 billion, up 17 million bu from the previous estimate.
On the demand side, the USDA made offsetting adjustments, raising domestic crush while cutting exports.
Soybean crush for 2025-26 was increased 15 million bu to 2.57 billion, supported by stronger domestic disappearance of soybean meal and improved export demand for meal. The USDA also revised soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates based on early-season processing data, reflecting improved crush efficiency.
However, the most notable change in the report came on exports. US soybean exports were cut 60 million bu this month to 1.575 billion bu, versus 1.882 billion in 2024-25, as higher production and stronger export availability from Brazil continue to pressure US competitiveness on the global market. That export reduction more than offset the increase in crush, pushing US ending stocks sharply higher.
Ending stocks for 2025-26 are now projected at 350 million bu, up 60 million bushels from last month and above pre-report trade expectations of 295 million.
Price forecasts were adjusted lower in response to the heavier stocks outlook. The USDA cut the US season-average soybean price by 30 cents/bu to $10.20, citing reported prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings. The soybean meal price was lowered $5 to $295/short ton, while the soybean oil price was left unchanged at 53 cents/lb
Globally, the USDA raised its 2025-26 soybean production estimate for Brazil by 3 million tonnes from December to 178 million, well above 154.5 million a year earlier. Exports were raised 1.5 million tonnes from December to 114 million.Argentina production was steady at 48.5 million tonnes, compared to 51.11 million in 2024-25.
World soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 124.41 million tonnes this month, up from 122.37 million in December and 123.4 million a year earlier.
Soybean futures were trading about 5-13 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
